These scenarios are reductive. There is a lot we don't know about COVID, and even a decent amount we don't know about the flu.
Comparing CFR for influenza to IFR for COVID is not an apples to apples comparison. CFR for seasonal influenza is probably something like .1, and IFR for influenza is probably something like .02-.05. Flu deaths are estimated by the CDC using excess death data. If you use the same methodology to estimate COVID deaths to date, you get an estimate in the 110-125k range.
Modeling the effectiveness of the federal response is difficult because there are so many factors that play into what you would expect to see in different scenarios. Population density, responses by the various state and local government agencies, changes in social behavior and environmental differences each play a factor. It's difficult to have a fair baseline. The best comparisons are going to be other first world countries with similar weather & population density, but these factors are so different within different regions of the US that trying to compare our national results to another country is of limited use.
The best guesses I have at this time is that this virus is more deadly (probable CFR in the .3-1.0 range vs. .1 for seasonal influenza [though this varies]) and more contagious (R0 of 2-6 vs ~1.3 for seasonal influenza).
Effectiveness of the national response thusfar to COVID is uncertain, but probably moderate. It is difficult to determine what the true infection rate was/is without widespread serology testing, and it is likely to have very substantial regional variation as a result of both differing regional responses (preventative measures were mostly regional, not national), and other factors mentioned above (population density, weather, social norms etc.).
Probably the fairest way to determine how well countries are responding to COVID overall is to compare per capita death rates. The US fares...OK here. Better than most of Western Europe, but Western Europe arguably had less time to prepare. Time to prepare and how far along the curve each country is makes even these comparisons perilous, and of limited use, especially when the data from some countries (China, Russia, etc.) is not dependable.
One specific thing I will point out is that the US has done a poor job of protecting the most vulnerable populations. Something like 30-40% of the reported deaths have come from nursing homes/assisted living facilities, including an astounding 70% here in Ohio where I live.