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#169719 - 03/11/20 10:43 AM My proposal for managing COVID-19
jryan Offline
Hardcase


Registered: 06/08/07
Posts: 8610
Loc: Oakton VA
Many people are basing their support for massive quarantine protocols on the "We don't know" principle surrounding the COVID-19 virus.

I think what we do know about the virus gives us all we need to know about controlling it. Let me explain....

The following facts are not disputed:

1) The virus strongly impacts the elderly and infirm almost exclusively. The average age of those who have died from COVID-19 is hovers in the 70s

2) The symptoms for the large majority of those who contract the illness, and become symptomatic, is similar to a mild flu.

3) The R0 of COVID-19 is about 2.5-3, suggesting it's nearly impossible to prevent spread to begin with.

So, here is my proposal:

Instead of focusing efforts on stopping the spread of the disease to everyone, and quarantining the sick, take a photo negative of that plan and ask those who are in good health, but in the high risk pool, to self quarantine and provide instruction to their care givers on how to maintain a contamination barrier (the usual hand washing, masks, etc. etc.). The funding for the response can be spent on supporting state and local agencies that already provide in-home care to the elderly.

I think this would be effective for two reasons:

1) It narrows the effort to just the population for whom COVID-19 is a real concern and...

2) Voluntary Quarantine is easier to maintain than forced quarantine.

Anyway, that is what I would do if I was King.
_________________________
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” - Richard Feynman

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#169721 - 03/14/20 09:23 PM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: jryan]
jryan Offline
Hardcase


Registered: 06/08/07
Posts: 8610
Loc: Oakton VA
This article on Medium appears to support my idea:

https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/coronavirus-why-its-so-deadly-in-italy-c4200a15a7bf



The difference in outcomes in Italy and South Korea seem to be largely due to the fact that South Korea successfully protected their elderly from the virus while Italy did not.

Granted, Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, so they would probably naturally trend older in their infection ages.
_________________________
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” - Richard Feynman

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#169722 - 03/16/20 05:26 AM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: jryan]
ScottSA Offline
CEO of the Hegemony


Registered: 05/19/06
Posts: 14322
Loc: Canada
It's interesting how the virus seems to be widespread amongst some younger populations for quite some time before even being detected. If that's true it seems as if it's already rampant and relatively harmless amongst the vast majority of the population, excepting the immune compromised and the elderly. That would of course drive down the actual mortality rate to what might quite easily be lower than that of the common cold or flu.
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If a cluttered desk is a sign of a cluttered mind, of what is an empty desk a sign?~Albert Einstein

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#169725 - 03/16/20 11:04 AM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: ScottSA]
jryan Offline
Hardcase


Registered: 06/08/07
Posts: 8610
Loc: Oakton VA
Yeah, it's as if this disease were manufactured to target the elderly.

Not that I am saying it was, mind you. I'm just thinking that its small impact group should instruct us on how to respond.

But it doesn't matter at this point, the media and world governments have gone full shut down mode.
_________________________
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” - Richard Feynman

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#169726 - 03/16/20 02:32 PM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: jryan]
ScottSA Offline
CEO of the Hegemony


Registered: 05/19/06
Posts: 14322
Loc: Canada
 Originally Posted By: jryan
But it doesn't matter at this point, the media and world governments have gone full shut down mode.
Which makes for an interesting conundrum, since I'm in Baja right now and the Mexican government is talking about shutting down the US-Mexico border. New disaster film coming up: Prisoners in Paradise
_________________________
If a cluttered desk is a sign of a cluttered mind, of what is an empty desk a sign?~Albert Einstein

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#169727 - 03/17/20 02:18 AM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: ScottSA]
Cothren Offline
enthusiast


Registered: 12/20/05
Posts: 255
Careful, guys:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/co...pgtype=Homepage

Even Trump finally admits things could get very, very bad.

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#169729 - 03/18/20 03:52 AM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: Cothren]
ScottSA Offline
CEO of the Hegemony


Registered: 05/19/06
Posts: 14322
Loc: Canada
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-updates-united-states.html

Chances are great that this has been with us for some time, with people getting sick, healing, and moving on (or dying, at the same rate as from influenza, since this tends to target the elderly and immune-compromised in a like manner). If this turns out to be true, the death rate will be significantly lower than currently believed.
_________________________
If a cluttered desk is a sign of a cluttered mind, of what is an empty desk a sign?~Albert Einstein

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#169730 - 03/18/20 05:14 AM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: ScottSA]
springer2 Offline
Pooh-Bah


Registered: 04/17/06
Posts: 1715
Loc: Temecula, CA
 Originally Posted By: ScottSA
Chances are great that this has been with us for some time, with people getting sick, healing, and moving on (or dying, at the same rate as from influenza, since this tends to target the elderly and immune-compromised in a like manner). If this turns out to be true, the death rate will be significantly lower than currently believed.


I'm curious to hear what this idea is based on. I've yet to see a report (and I've read way too many of them over the last three weeks) that claims to say the death is anything less than at least 10X that of the yearly flu. And most estimates are that it is 30-40x the death rate.
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I never use a big word when a diminutive word will suffice.


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#169731 - 03/18/20 04:40 PM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: springer2]
ScottSA Offline
CEO of the Hegemony


Registered: 05/19/06
Posts: 14322
Loc: Canada
Click the link and all shall be revealed
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If a cluttered desk is a sign of a cluttered mind, of what is an empty desk a sign?~Albert Einstein

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#169732 - 03/18/20 04:50 PM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: ScottSA]
springer2 Offline
Pooh-Bah


Registered: 04/17/06
Posts: 1715
Loc: Temecula, CA
I read it before and just read it again and see nothing in there that suggests what you did. Not that it matters. We will see what the numbers are once this crisis is passed.

I'm not sure if you linked a different article than you meant to or if I'm just dense. From what I've read the death rate will drop once more people that have it are tested but not to the level of the yearly flu.


Edited by springer2 (03/18/20 05:08 PM)
Edit Reason: added some stuff
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I never use a big word when a diminutive word will suffice.


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