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#169733 - 03/18/20 05:38 PM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: springer2]
ScottSA Offline
CEO of the Hegemony


Registered: 05/19/06
Posts: 14322
Loc: Canada
My apologies. This is the right link. *Note to self: double check facts before administering sarcasm:

https://www.livescience.com/first-case-c...i4GRFuFYb8lPaxQ
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If a cluttered desk is a sign of a cluttered mind, of what is an empty desk a sign?~Albert Einstein

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#169734 - 03/18/20 05:43 PM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: ScottSA]
springer2 Offline
Pooh-Bah


Registered: 04/17/06
Posts: 1715
Loc: Temecula, CA
Cool. Thanks. I'll check it out.

I know I'm dumb but I didn't think I was that stupid . . .
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I never use a big word when a diminutive word will suffice.


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#169735 - 03/18/20 06:28 PM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: springer2]
springer2 Offline
Pooh-Bah


Registered: 04/17/06
Posts: 1715
Loc: Temecula, CA
A couple more interesting articles from The Jerusalem Post with potentially positive news on the virus:

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Isr...-vaccine-619101

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-nobel-laureate-Coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145
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I never use a big word when a diminutive word will suffice.


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#169736 - 03/19/20 11:28 PM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: springer2]
jmill Offline
Full Shrike


Registered: 04/01/06
Posts: 5721
Loc: Earth

Those are very encouraging articles Springer, especially the Israeli vaccine article. It will still take months to get to people, hopefully not the 1 to 1.5 year estimate for a vaccine that the CDC/FDA etc. foresee for the US to develop one.
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"Long is the way and hard that out of Hell leads up to light." -John Milton

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#169823 - 05/01/20 02:57 PM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: jryan]
jryan Offline
Hardcase


Registered: 06/08/07
Posts: 8611
Loc: Oakton VA
Well, I think the real world has done enough to show the validity of my proposal. New York did roughly the opposite, even going as far as forcing Nursing Homes to take COVID patients, and their results are what you would expect.

Essentially the answer to COVID doesn't' rest in a vaccine, it rests in common sense. There are a few things I have argued over the last two months that I think are worth repeating:

1) Quarantine should be voluntary and targeted at those most medically threatened by COVID-19. You don't need the police to enforce voluntary quarantine.

2) Sanitary conditions in China are abhorrent, and are mostly responsible for the bloom of coronavirus there from time to time.

3) South Korean culture likely more responsible for South Korean success than was South Korean government response.

4) In the same way that Native Americans, having not lived in and around European viruses, were extremely hard hit my imported European virus, it is also very likely that Chinese and other surrounding Asian populations, having lived with variations of coronavirus for millennia, have developed some immunity to these coronavirus those of European ancestry probably haven't.

5) Regardless of natural immunities, China's numbers are certainly fake and intended to protect the Authoritarian state from scrutiny.

There are likely more, but I think those are my core five takeaways.

One result that I expect to see from all of this is that the net loss of life to virus over the next 5 years will be greatly reduced due to the changes being made, and the technology being developed to combat COVID-19

I think the development of FAR-UVC light as an anti-viral will have, in time, tremendous benefit in the limit of flu spread every year. Fixing FAR-UVC lights on commuter trains alone could save thousands of lives in the US every year by preventing airborne and surface transfer between daily commuters.
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“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” - Richard Feynman

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#169829 - 05/05/20 07:21 PM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: jryan]
jryan Offline
Hardcase


Registered: 06/08/07
Posts: 8611
Loc: Oakton VA
And another observation after reading this thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1257392347010215947.html

In this person's review of medical studies on COVID-19 transmission it was clear that the highest risk of contracting COVID-19 was from a family member. Transmission rates within a household were nearly twice the rate of contracting from contact outside of the home... which seems common sense for a virus that has long been suspected to require prolonged close contact for successful transmission.

So, considering the hardest hit countries and communities, they all seem to be communities and cultures that prize their elders. So, I would not be at all surprised to find out that the disaster that unfolded in Italy and NYC was connected to multi-generational cohabitation.

The more I read, the more it seems that culture more than anything impacted transmission rates and outcomes.
_________________________
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” - Richard Feynman

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#169836 - 05/06/20 01:22 PM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: jryan]
jmill Offline
Full Shrike


Registered: 04/01/06
Posts: 5721
Loc: Earth

Interesting article. The FAR-UVC will help, I'm sure.

My first thought was that if the light penetrates as shallowly as it does, then it won't be able to inactivate larger droplet spread because the droplet sizes can be large enough to shield the virus. But any expiration droplets large enough to protect the virus will have a very short airborne duration. It's the nebulized particles that have the ability to remain suspended in the air for extended lengths of time and to be breathed in by others. Combine the lights with a change in our culture, i.e., wearing masks when one feels unwell to stifle coughs and sneezes, thus preventing the larger droplets from depositing virus on surfaces that people might touch, and the light can deactivate the virus in droplets small enough to remain airborne.

As for culture being a factor, you're probably right about that. Culturally specific diets as well. America is one of the fattest nations on earth, and overweight people are more susceptible to this virus simply because they have more health problems. The complaint in NYC is that black Americans were disproportionately hit by the virus. Well, that community is still fairly poor, and poverty can lead to poor diets, more multi-generational homes, and less living space for adults and children to cohabit. Add in a genetic propensity for high blood pressure and diabetes for the black community, and you have a recipe for one segment of society being hit harder than another.
_________________________
"Long is the way and hard that out of Hell leads up to light." -John Milton

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#169843 - 05/07/20 01:08 PM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: jmill]
jryan Offline
Hardcase


Registered: 06/08/07
Posts: 8611
Loc: Oakton VA
There is a growing amount of evidence that the COVID-19 virus path to infection is through ACE2 receptor sights on cell walls.

The number of ACE2 receptors varies from person to person, and early study shows that the number of ACE2 receptors that develop on a cell wall was genetic.

I draw two guesses from this:

1) The average of ACE2 receptors are higher in people of European and African heritage than in those of Asian heritage since Asians cohabiting with SARS viruses for centuries would have likely weeded out those with genetic predisposition to high ACE2 counts.

2) The findings that COVID-19 symptom severity correlates with the concentration of COVID-19 in the environment where the person contracted the virus would be explained by #1 above. While low ACE2 receptors would offer COVID-19 less chance of taking hold, flooding the body with COVID-19 would increase the likelihood of a critical level of infection at one time.
_________________________
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” - Richard Feynman

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#169844 - 05/08/20 03:27 AM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: jryan]
Diodotos Offline
enthusiast


Registered: 05/28/07
Posts: 39
South Korea's success was due to beneficial government action following basic epidemiology's advice: test, trace contacts, quarantine. If they get Faux "News" vel sim, they have the good sense to ignore it. "Seven weeks ago, South Korea and the U.S. had the same number of virus deaths. Today, South Korea has fewer than 300, and the U.S. has more than 70,000." I would prefer that to voluntary quarantine. See
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/whats-south-koreas-secret/611215/

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#169845 - 05/08/20 04:03 AM Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19 [Re: Diodotos]
Diodotos Offline
enthusiast


Registered: 05/28/07
Posts: 39
What the US still has not come near to getting right: testing. And even if we had done that right, we have diddly for the essential followup of contact tracing. Thus we are cornered by the "Live and Let Die" dilemma of unguided mass quarantine or sending people to work in dangerous conditions. See npr on the utterly ridiculous US testing deficit: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shot...our-state-doing
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