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#107654 - 11/17/10 07:53 AM Charting Europe's Slow Motion Train Wreck
ScottSA Offline
CEO of the Hegemony


Registered: 05/19/06
Posts: 14293
Loc: Canada
Greek December Aid Tranche Delayed Until January - Charting Europe's Slow Motion Train Wreck
by Tyler Durden on 11/17/2010 10:01 -0500

Some more on the second biggest piece of Euro-news from yesterday. After Austria surprisingly announced it would delay its contribution to the Greece bailout fund until such time as Greece actually stopped lying and did what it had promised (i.e., never), it seems that more of the Eurozone is starting to get cold feet over how to proceed with this classical defection from a game theory set up. As a result, the entire EU has delayed the December tranche of the Greek payment until January. Presumably this is to teach Greece a lesson, although it is unclear what it will actually end up achieving. As Greece can not fund itself outside of the ECB framework, as its banks are insolvent, and as it does not have the capital to exist in isolation, this action is comparable to the EU pointing a gun at its head and telling itself it has to stop lying or else. Yet with the entire continent subsisting on nothing but lies, this is nothing but a pure exercise in surreal tragicomedy - yesterday's question to Ollie Rehn during the EU press conference by a WSJ reporter about how the Stress Tests confirmed all is good with Austrian banks, and how he would comment on this, which was followed by an awkward silence, captures it perfectly.

From Reuters:

Adding to peripheral unease and pushing German Bund futures up half a point at one stage, Austria said December EU payments to Greece would be postponed until January after euro zone finance ministers told Athens on Tuesday to cut its spending more.

"It's illustrative of the divisions in, and the inherent weakness of, the euro zone due to the policy makers' priorities ultimately being domestic rather than for the common good of the euro zone," said Credit Agricole strategist Peter Chatwell.

Ireland pledged to work with a EU-International Monetary Fund mission on steps to help a stricken banking sector -- a process that could lead to a bailout which Dublin has so far baulked at asking for .

"While there remains uncertainty over this, it doesn't look good for the peripheral markets," said Nomura rate strategist Sean Maloney.

And here are some pretty charts from Reuters.
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If a cluttered desk is a sign of a cluttered mind, of what is an empty desk a sign?~Albert Einstein

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#107660 - 11/17/10 09:26 AM Re: Charting Europe's Slow Motion Train Wreck [Re: ScottSA]
Dan Simmons Administrator Offline
CEO of the Hegemony


Registered: 09/02/05
Posts: 11202
Loc: Colorado
Dan S. asks:

If Germany decides to quit propping up these insolvent nations and the EU crumbles . . . what next?

DS

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#107664 - 11/17/10 09:56 AM Re: Charting Europe's Slow Motion Train Wreck [Re: Dan Simmons]
jryan Offline
Hardcase


Registered: 06/08/07
Posts: 8578
Loc: Oakton VA
I would guess that Greece would fall into poverty and OPEC nations would begin to discuss building pipelines through Greece, through a increasingly fundamentalist Turkey.

And from there.. very bad things.
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“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” - Richard Feynman

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#107666 - 11/17/10 10:58 AM Re: Charting Europe's Slow Motion Train Wreck [Re: jryan]
Dan Simmons Administrator Offline
CEO of the Hegemony


Registered: 09/02/05
Posts: 11202
Loc: Colorado
Dan Simmons comments:

This is the time (or at least I'm making it so) to plug my next novel -- FLASHBACK -- which, due to scheduling changes, won't be available until July of 2011.

But in this dystopian novel, set in the year 2032 (although the exact year is never mentioned in the book), this dissolution of Europe has already occurred, along with the spike-growth and increasing control of Islam there.

The United States has imploded after its debt far surpassed its GDP. Those living in the ragged aftermath of the economic and social implosion call it the Big Crunch. The United States is not what it was and now its citizens know that it never will be again.

China, unable to provide middle-class lives for a billion rural-turned-urban people demanding it, has fragmented into regional warlords and wars. Americans fight there under the role of "UN Peacekeepers" but really as mercenaries of Japan, which has risen like a Phoenix.

The Global Caliphate curves like a double-scythe -- or a crescent moon -- across Europe (and England to Canada) and the Mideast through North Africa, but also across south Asian island nations. More people in the Mideast, Europe, Canada, and Asia live under sharia law than any other social protocol.

All this is distant background to the murder mystery that is at the center of FLASHBACK. But the detective investigating the murder -- the killing of the son of one of the most important Japanese "Advisors" who really run the U.S. economy, a playboy young man who was doing a video documentary on American flashback addicts -- is also a flashback addict himself. One new buck buys one full minute of reliving one's past. Thirty new bucks for thirty minutes reliving -- hearing, seeing, feeling -- the happiest times you've ever had, often with loved ones who've long since died. You can't change it, but you can completely experience it again. And again.

In the terrorist-ridden cities of America, flashback gangs of young kids commit rapes and acts of violence just so they can flash on it again. And again.

Under the Caliphate -- and, shockingly, in Japan -- any use of the drug flashback is immediately punishable by death.

But in America . . . more than 90% of us are flashback addicts, reliving the best of our past lives rather than dealing with the mess given to us by those who -- back in 2010 and beyond -- bankrupted the nation and left us merely another impoverished and unemployed minor power with nuclear weapons. One of many.

This is the first time I've wished that one of my novels were being released earlier than its official date.

But if you want some provocative beach reading -- FLASHBACK, available in July of 2011.

DS

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#107667 - 11/17/10 11:04 AM Re: Charting Europe's Slow Motion Train Wreck [Re: Dan Simmons]
FollowerOfFools Offline
old hand


Registered: 05/25/08
Posts: 1190
Loc: Sweden
 Originally Posted By: Dan Simmons
Dan S. asks:

If Germany decides to quit propping up these insolvent nations and the EU crumbles . . . what next?

DS


Hopefully death to the corrupt central bureaucracy in Brussels.
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An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.

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#107668 - 11/17/10 11:08 AM Re: Charting Europe's Slow Motion Train Wreck [Re: Dan Simmons]
springer2 Offline
Pooh-Bah


Registered: 04/17/06
Posts: 1695
Loc: Temecula, CA
With any luck FLASHBACK will be the 1984 of our times.

Too much to ask, I know, but one can hope. Or one must, I suppose, especially with a couple of young children running around.

Springer
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I never use a big word when a diminutive word will suffice.


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#107669 - 11/17/10 11:08 AM Re: Charting Europe's Slow Motion Train Wreck [Re: Dan Simmons]
Little John Online   content
old hand


Registered: 08/01/08
Posts: 861
Loc: Bryan, TX
I'm betting the delay won't make the premise of your novel any less topical. Our current troubles probably aren't going away any time soon.

Thanks for the preview!
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Paul Massie

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#107670 - 11/17/10 11:21 AM Re: Charting Europe's Slow Motion Train Wreck [Re: Little John]
Shrike1 Online   content
veteran


Registered: 09/27/05
Posts: 1304
Loc: Greenville, NC
My pre-ordered copy from AMAZON UK is scheduled to ship in late March or early April. I can't wait three additional months, the world may be in ruins by then...

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Flashback-Dan-Si...90032051&sr=8-1

Greg
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Words can't define what I feel inside
Who needs them? -- Smashing Pumpkins "GEEK U.S.A."

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#107672 - 11/17/10 12:21 PM Re: Charting Europe's Slow Motion Train Wreck [Re: Shrike1]
Dan Simmons Administrator Offline
CEO of the Hegemony


Registered: 09/02/05
Posts: 11202
Loc: Colorado
 Originally Posted By: Shrike1
My pre-ordered copy from AMAZON UK is scheduled to ship in late March or early April. I can't wait three additional months, the world may be in ruins by then...

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Flashback-Dan-Si...90032051&sr=8-1

Greg


Dan S. comments:

Thanks for reminding me. The UK edition of FLASHBACK sticks to the original publication schedule (for Little, Brown in the U.S.) and comes out three months earlier than the delayed-to-July Little, Brown American edition.

I may buy the UK edition myself in my eagerness to read this amazing novel.

I'm also pushing hard to get the Kindle and other e-editions out as promptly as possible.

DS

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#107674 - 11/17/10 12:35 PM Re: Charting Europe's Slow Motion Train Wreck [Re: Dan Simmons]
ScottSA Offline
CEO of the Hegemony


Registered: 05/19/06
Posts: 14293
Loc: Canada
Dayum, eh? That's the book I'd write if I could write. I can't wait to read it to know what I would have said if I could...well, you know.
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If a cluttered desk is a sign of a cluttered mind, of what is an empty desk a sign?~Albert Einstein

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