jryan
(Hardcase)
03/11/20 10:43 AM
My proposal for managing COVID-19

Many people are basing their support for massive quarantine protocols on the "We don't know" principle surrounding the COVID-19 virus.

I think what we do know about the virus gives us all we need to know about controlling it. Let me explain....

The following facts are not disputed:

1) The virus strongly impacts the elderly and infirm almost exclusively. The average age of those who have died from COVID-19 is hovers in the 70s

2) The symptoms for the large majority of those who contract the illness, and become symptomatic, is similar to a mild flu.

3) The R0 of COVID-19 is about 2.5-3, suggesting it's nearly impossible to prevent spread to begin with.

So, here is my proposal:

Instead of focusing efforts on stopping the spread of the disease to everyone, and quarantining the sick, take a photo negative of that plan and ask those who are in good health, but in the high risk pool, to self quarantine and provide instruction to their care givers on how to maintain a contamination barrier (the usual hand washing, masks, etc. etc.). The funding for the response can be spent on supporting state and local agencies that already provide in-home care to the elderly.

I think this would be effective for two reasons:

1) It narrows the effort to just the population for whom COVID-19 is a real concern and...

2) Voluntary Quarantine is easier to maintain than forced quarantine.

Anyway, that is what I would do if I was King.


jryan
(Hardcase)
03/14/20 09:23 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

This article on Medium appears to support my idea:

https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/coronavirus-why-its-so-deadly-in-italy-c4200a15a7bf



The difference in outcomes in Italy and South Korea seem to be largely due to the fact that South Korea successfully protected their elderly from the virus while Italy did not.

Granted, Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, so they would probably naturally trend older in their infection ages.


ScottSA
(CEO of the Hegemony)
03/16/20 05:26 AM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

It's interesting how the virus seems to be widespread amongst some younger populations for quite some time before even being detected. If that's true it seems as if it's already rampant and relatively harmless amongst the vast majority of the population, excepting the immune compromised and the elderly. That would of course drive down the actual mortality rate to what might quite easily be lower than that of the common cold or flu.

jryan
(Hardcase)
03/16/20 11:04 AM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

Yeah, it's as if this disease were manufactured to target the elderly.

Not that I am saying it was, mind you. I'm just thinking that its small impact group should instruct us on how to respond.

But it doesn't matter at this point, the media and world governments have gone full shut down mode.


ScottSA
(CEO of the Hegemony)
03/16/20 02:32 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

 Originally Posted By: jryan
But it doesn't matter at this point, the media and world governments have gone full shut down mode.
Which makes for an interesting conundrum, since I'm in Baja right now and the Mexican government is talking about shutting down the US-Mexico border. New disaster film coming up: Prisoners in Paradise


Cothren
(enthusiast)
03/17/20 02:18 AM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

Careful, guys:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/co...pgtype=Homepage

Even Trump finally admits things could get very, very bad.


ScottSA
(CEO of the Hegemony)
03/18/20 03:52 AM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-updates-united-states.html

Chances are great that this has been with us for some time, with people getting sick, healing, and moving on (or dying, at the same rate as from influenza, since this tends to target the elderly and immune-compromised in a like manner). If this turns out to be true, the death rate will be significantly lower than currently believed.


springer2
(Pooh-Bah)
03/18/20 05:14 AM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

 Originally Posted By: ScottSA
Chances are great that this has been with us for some time, with people getting sick, healing, and moving on (or dying, at the same rate as from influenza, since this tends to target the elderly and immune-compromised in a like manner). If this turns out to be true, the death rate will be significantly lower than currently believed.


I'm curious to hear what this idea is based on. I've yet to see a report (and I've read way too many of them over the last three weeks) that claims to say the death is anything less than at least 10X that of the yearly flu. And most estimates are that it is 30-40x the death rate.


ScottSA
(CEO of the Hegemony)
03/18/20 04:40 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

Click the link and all shall be revealed

springer2
(Pooh-Bah)
03/18/20 04:50 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

I read it before and just read it again and see nothing in there that suggests what you did. Not that it matters. We will see what the numbers are once this crisis is passed.

I'm not sure if you linked a different article than you meant to or if I'm just dense. From what I've read the death rate will drop once more people that have it are tested but not to the level of the yearly flu.


ScottSA
(CEO of the Hegemony)
03/18/20 05:38 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

My apologies. This is the right link. *Note to self: double check facts before administering sarcasm:

https://www.livescience.com/first-case-c...i4GRFuFYb8lPaxQ


springer2
(Pooh-Bah)
03/18/20 05:43 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

Cool. Thanks. I'll check it out.

I know I'm dumb but I didn't think I was that stupid . . .


springer2
(Pooh-Bah)
03/18/20 06:28 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

A couple more interesting articles from The Jerusalem Post with potentially positive news on the virus:

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Isr...-vaccine-619101

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-nobel-laureate-Coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145


jmill
(Full Shrike)
03/19/20 11:28 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19


Those are very encouraging articles Springer, especially the Israeli vaccine article. It will still take months to get to people, hopefully not the 1 to 1.5 year estimate for a vaccine that the CDC/FDA etc. foresee for the US to develop one.


jryan
(Hardcase)
05/01/20 02:57 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

Well, I think the real world has done enough to show the validity of my proposal. New York did roughly the opposite, even going as far as forcing Nursing Homes to take COVID patients, and their results are what you would expect.

Essentially the answer to COVID doesn't' rest in a vaccine, it rests in common sense. There are a few things I have argued over the last two months that I think are worth repeating:

1) Quarantine should be voluntary and targeted at those most medically threatened by COVID-19. You don't need the police to enforce voluntary quarantine.

2) Sanitary conditions in China are abhorrent, and are mostly responsible for the bloom of coronavirus there from time to time.

3) South Korean culture likely more responsible for South Korean success than was South Korean government response.

4) In the same way that Native Americans, having not lived in and around European viruses, were extremely hard hit my imported European virus, it is also very likely that Chinese and other surrounding Asian populations, having lived with variations of coronavirus for millennia, have developed some immunity to these coronavirus those of European ancestry probably haven't.

5) Regardless of natural immunities, China's numbers are certainly fake and intended to protect the Authoritarian state from scrutiny.

There are likely more, but I think those are my core five takeaways.

One result that I expect to see from all of this is that the net loss of life to virus over the next 5 years will be greatly reduced due to the changes being made, and the technology being developed to combat COVID-19

I think the development of FAR-UVC light as an anti-viral will have, in time, tremendous benefit in the limit of flu spread every year. Fixing FAR-UVC lights on commuter trains alone could save thousands of lives in the US every year by preventing airborne and surface transfer between daily commuters.


jryan
(Hardcase)
05/05/20 07:21 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

And another observation after reading this thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1257392347010215947.html

In this person's review of medical studies on COVID-19 transmission it was clear that the highest risk of contracting COVID-19 was from a family member. Transmission rates within a household were nearly twice the rate of contracting from contact outside of the home... which seems common sense for a virus that has long been suspected to require prolonged close contact for successful transmission.

So, considering the hardest hit countries and communities, they all seem to be communities and cultures that prize their elders. So, I would not be at all surprised to find out that the disaster that unfolded in Italy and NYC was connected to multi-generational cohabitation.

The more I read, the more it seems that culture more than anything impacted transmission rates and outcomes.


jmill
(Full Shrike)
05/06/20 01:22 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19


Interesting article. The FAR-UVC will help, I'm sure.

My first thought was that if the light penetrates as shallowly as it does, then it won't be able to inactivate larger droplet spread because the droplet sizes can be large enough to shield the virus. But any expiration droplets large enough to protect the virus will have a very short airborne duration. It's the nebulized particles that have the ability to remain suspended in the air for extended lengths of time and to be breathed in by others. Combine the lights with a change in our culture, i.e., wearing masks when one feels unwell to stifle coughs and sneezes, thus preventing the larger droplets from depositing virus on surfaces that people might touch, and the light can deactivate the virus in droplets small enough to remain airborne.

As for culture being a factor, you're probably right about that. Culturally specific diets as well. America is one of the fattest nations on earth, and overweight people are more susceptible to this virus simply because they have more health problems. The complaint in NYC is that black Americans were disproportionately hit by the virus. Well, that community is still fairly poor, and poverty can lead to poor diets, more multi-generational homes, and less living space for adults and children to cohabit. Add in a genetic propensity for high blood pressure and diabetes for the black community, and you have a recipe for one segment of society being hit harder than another.


jryan
(Hardcase)
05/07/20 01:08 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

There is a growing amount of evidence that the COVID-19 virus path to infection is through ACE2 receptor sights on cell walls.

The number of ACE2 receptors varies from person to person, and early study shows that the number of ACE2 receptors that develop on a cell wall was genetic.

I draw two guesses from this:

1) The average of ACE2 receptors are higher in people of European and African heritage than in those of Asian heritage since Asians cohabiting with SARS viruses for centuries would have likely weeded out those with genetic predisposition to high ACE2 counts.

2) The findings that COVID-19 symptom severity correlates with the concentration of COVID-19 in the environment where the person contracted the virus would be explained by #1 above. While low ACE2 receptors would offer COVID-19 less chance of taking hold, flooding the body with COVID-19 would increase the likelihood of a critical level of infection at one time.


Diodotos
(enthusiast)
05/08/20 03:27 AM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

South Korea's success was due to beneficial government action following basic epidemiology's advice: test, trace contacts, quarantine. If they get Faux "News" vel sim, they have the good sense to ignore it. "Seven weeks ago, South Korea and the U.S. had the same number of virus deaths. Today, South Korea has fewer than 300, and the U.S. has more than 70,000." I would prefer that to voluntary quarantine. See
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/whats-south-koreas-secret/611215/


Diodotos
(enthusiast)
05/08/20 04:03 AM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

What the US still has not come near to getting right: testing. And even if we had done that right, we have diddly for the essential followup of contact tracing. Thus we are cornered by the "Live and Let Die" dilemma of unguided mass quarantine or sending people to work in dangerous conditions. See npr on the utterly ridiculous US testing deficit: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shot...our-state-doing

jryan
(Hardcase)
05/20/20 07:56 PM
Re: My proposal for managing COVID-19

 Originally Posted By: Diodotos
What the US still has not come near to getting right: testing. And even if we had done that right, we have diddly for the essential followup of contact tracing. Thus we are cornered by the "Live and Let Die" dilemma of unguided mass quarantine or sending people to work in dangerous conditions. See npr on the utterly ridiculous US testing deficit: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shot...our-state-doing



Well, bullshit. The numbers are the numbers. The issue in the US is centered on 6 states who made the insane decision to return elderly COVID-19 patients to nursing homes where, at the very least, the plurality of COVID-19 deaths have occurred.

So your argument regarding testing and tracing means nothing when these idiotic states were taking CONFIRMED cases and housing them with known high-risk populations. State policy created the disaster.

It isn't about knowing who has it as much as doing the right thing with the people you know have it. Those 6 states screwed the proverbial pooch.